economicsThursday, July 16, 2026
June retail sales data landed today, and the headline number is weak, 0.2% growth, but dig deeper and consumers are still spending, just not on gas. That split tells the story of an economy where falling energy prices mask underlying resilience, but also where people are feeling the pinch. Meanwhile, the UK economy eked out 0.1% growth despite the Iran war's energy shock, and Russia's economic facade continues to crack.
The US retail sales report for June is the day's biggest data point, and it's a mixed bag that rewards a close read.
Headline retail sales rose just 0.2% in June, a sharp slowdown from May's revised 1% gain, but strip out gas stations, where prices fell 5.3%, and the core number was a robust 0.7%, suggesting consumers are still willing to spend on cars and summer sales.
A deeper dive from RSM confirms the same pattern: falling gas prices dragged down the topline, but ex-gas spending was solid, reinforcing the idea that consumers are resilient even as the headline looks soft.
The UK economy posted a modest recovery in May, but the underlying picture is fragile, while Russia's financial system shows worrying signs.
The UK economy grew 0.1% in May, recovering from April's 0.1% contraction, and analysts say it has weathered the Iran war's energy price spike better than expected, though 'fragile' is still the watchword.
BBC's coverage adds that the service sector drove the growth while production and construction declined, and notes that some economists describe the recovery as 'fragile' despite the better-than-expected performance.
A European intelligence report warns Russia's economy is a mirage: bankruptcies topped 500,000 in 2025, the deficit doubled to 6 trillion rubles, and a Communist leader's suggestion to seize bank deposits has citizens pulling cash for the first time since 2022.
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