economicsFriday, June 19
Today's economics news is a double dose of 'who actually pays.' A New York Fed report confirms American consumers and companies foot nearly all of Trump's tariff bill. Meanwhile, fresh Bank of England data pegs Brexit's cost at 6% of UK GDP. Both stories puncture political narratives with hard numbers.
The first story cuts through political spin with a clear data point.
The New York Fed's analysis is blunt: nearly all of Trump's tariffs are paid by U.S. households and businesses, not foreign exporters. The data covers 2025 and shows the burden actually eased slightly over the year, but never dropped below 86%.
Across the Atlantic, another trade shock gets its economic reckoning.
This is one of the most direct estimates yet of Brexit's economic damage. Using internal Bank of England data on thousands of firms, economists reconstructed a counterfactual UK that stayed in the EU. The 6% gap is a running cost, not a one-time hit.
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