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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2025

9mo ago

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libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgThe New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2025newyorkfed.org

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This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2025 . To summarize, the model expects growth in 2025 to be stronger, and inflation lower, than in June. Moreover, the model’s predictions for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) have increased relative to June throughout the forecast horizon, partly reflecting the strength in the economy and the buoyant financial conditions.

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