EY economist Greg Daco predicts Fed will hold rates through 2026 despite hawkish signals
By
Moz Farooque
6d ago· 7 min readenInsight
Summary
EY-Parthenon chief economist Greg Daco argues that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady through 2026, contrary to Wall Street expectations of rate hikes. The analysis follows the Fed's June 17 meeting where nine of 19 policymakers forecast at least one rate hike by year-end, marking a hawkish shift. Daco suggests investors may be misreading the Fed's signals, as inflation data (May PCE report) continues to fuel debate about the central bank's next moves.
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Key quotes
· 4 pulledEY-Parthenon's top economist Greg Daco feels investors may be looking for the wrong move.
Nine of 19 policymakers forecast at least one rate hike by year-end, while the central bank kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
Though not a full consensus, it marked a hawkish turn from the prior meeting, when no policymaker had penciled in a hike.
Inflation gave the debate even more fuel.
Wall Street was starting to price in a tougher Fed, but EY-Parthenon's top economist Greg Daco feels investors may be looking for the wrong move.
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