Analysis predicts open source LLMs may catch frontier closed models by December 2026
By
Jamie DborinFounder & Member of Technical Staff, Doubleword
Summary
This article analyzes the performance gap between open weights LLMs and closed source LLMs using the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. It examines a plot showing how long it takes for open source models to catch up to frontier closed source models, and attempts to predict when an open source LLM will match frontier performance — forecasting a release around December 3, 2026.
Source
Hacker NewsAnalysis predicts open source LLMs may catch frontier closed models by December 2026blog.doubleword.aiKey quotes
· 3 pulledI have seen a version of the above plot going around Twitter and wanted to dig a bit deeper into it.
What the plot above is showing is the gap between open weights LLMs and closed source LLMs.
It is a measure of how long it took for open source models to catch up to the new capabilities reached by the
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