SpaceX Shares Slide Toward IPO Price as Lockup Threat and Bearish Warnings Mount

SpaceX (SPCX) stock has fallen back to its initial public offering price of $135, erasing gains that briefly took it above $200, according to Blockonomi and parameter.io. The shares most recently traded at $145.30 after a 4.5% drop, as reported by StartupHub.ai, reflecting continued post-IPO volatility and a limited public float that has amplified price swings.

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BlockonomiSpaceX (SPCX) Stock Retreats to IPO Levels: Should Investors Buy the Dip?parameter.ioSpaceX (SPCX) Stock Retreats to IPO Price: Analyzing the Buying OpportunityStartupHub.aiSpaceX Stock Falls 4.5% as Lockup Clock Ticks: $800B in Shares Set to Hit the Market

"The first insider tranche of 911 million shares unlocks after Q2 earnings, with $800B in total shares potentially entering the market by October 2026."

That massive overhang has spooked investors, particularly given the relatively thin float. The prospect of a flood of insider shares hitting the market has weighed on sentiment even as SpaceX's operational revenue grows, International Business Times Australia noted.

International Business Times AustraliaSpaceX Stock Drops 3.76 Percent as Post-IPO Volatility Continues Amid Thin Float Concerns

Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC went further, saying on Monday that shares could soon trade below the IPO price. "Gary Black thinks SpaceX stock could soon trade below its IPO price of $135/share in the coming days," interactivebrokers.com reported, citing concerns about valuation and the lockup expiration.

interactivebrokers.comGary Black Thinks SpaceX Stock Could Soon Trade Below Its IPO Price—Here’s Why

Despite the current slide, some analysts see a significant upside. Blockonomi reported that Wall Street targets suggest the stock could rebound to $300, representing a potential double from current levels. The stock has already plunged 35% from its $225 peak, per the same outlet.

For investors weighing whether to buy the dip, the near-term direction hinges largely on how the lockup unfolds. Bars noted that SpaceX now costs less than its opening price on IPO day, framing the question: is it a bargain, or could it go lower? The answer may come when the first insider tranche unlocks after Q2 earnings.

BarsHow to Invest in SpaceX Stock Before the Next Big Move