Migration model shows how social influence drives spontaneous fluctuations in migrant flows
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[Submitted on 29 Jun 2026]
Summary
This paper presents a minimal migration model that incorporates social influence (decisions depending on others' decisions) and individual heterogeneity in mobility. The model shows that in certain parameter spaces, migrant flows can fluctuate dramatically and spontaneously, mimicking real-world migration statistics. The authors argue that large fluctuations in migration data may reflect collective decision dynamics rather than just responses to external events like armed conflict or natural disasters, meaning exogenous factors can be confounded with collective decision outcomes.
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Key quotes
· 4 pulledDecisions to migrate depend on others' decisions.
In special locations of parameter space, migrant flows dramatically and spontaneously fluctuate.
Such aspects mimic observed fluctuations in migration statistics and thus show how large fluctuations in data can reflect more than response to events like armed conflict and natural disasters.
The impact of exogenous factors can be confounded with the results of collective decisions.
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