Mark Zuckerberg eyes prediction markets with new Meta app to rival Polymarket, Kalshi

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is pushing the company’s entry into the fast-growing prediction markets space, with plans to develop a standalone app aimed at competing with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a report by The New York Times.The proposed app, internally referred to as “Arena,” is being developed by a small team within Meta and is expected to operate independently of the company’s core platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.Unlike existing prediction market platforms where users place real-money bets, Arena is expected to initially adopt a points-based system similar to video games, although the possibility of introducing real-money wagering at a later stage has not been ruled out.The move comes as prediction markets gain traction globally. According to the report, the sector has seen rapid expansion, with trading volumes rising from about $50 billion in 2025 to over $130 billion in 2026, reflecting growing interest from both users and companies.Also read: Meta takes on the AI wearables market with its own glasses brandZuckerberg is said to view prediction markets as an emerging form of social behaviour on the internet, and the Arena project is part of a broader effort by Meta to explore new product categories beyond its core social networking business.The initiative also comes amid concerns within the company about growth saturation across Meta’s existing platforms, which collectively attract more than 3.5 billion daily users. This has led executives to experiment with standalone apps to tap new markets.Arena is one of several experimental products under development. Another reported project, Meta Photos, is expected to leverage AI to create new media experiences.Meta has previously experimented with prediction-based platforms. In 2020, it launched Forecast, a crowdsourced platform for predicting events, but shut it down in 2022 after limited traction.The broader industry is also attracting new entrants, including cryptocurrency exchanges, sports betting companies and media firms, as prediction markets increasingly become a mainstream digital category.However, the sector faces regulatory scrutiny. Platforms like Polymarket have come under investigation in the United States, prompting oversight by agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Meta insiders have indicated that Arena remains in development and may not necessarily be launched, as the company continues to evaluate its viability in an evolving and closely watched market.