How first-down passing shapes Mike McCarthy's offensive philosophy and modern NFL success
By
Christopher Carter
Summary
This article analyzes how first-down passing has become a defining characteristic of the NFL's most successful offenses, and how new Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (and by extension, head coach Mike McCarthy) plans to implement this philosophy. The piece explains that the Steelers have historically been a run-first team on early downs, but modern analytics show that passing on first down generates significantly higher expected points added (EPA). It compares the Steelers' conservative approach under previous coordinators to elite offenses like the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, which aggressively pass on first down. The article details how Smith's tenure with the Tennessee Titans showed a shift toward more first-down passing, and how the Steelers' personnel — particularly quarterback Kenny Pickett and new receivers — may finally support a more pass-heavy early-down approach. The piece also addresses the risks of first-down passing (sacks, negative plays) and how the Steelers might balance aggression with protecting their young quarterback.
Source
Key quotes
· 5 pulledThe numbers are clear: passing on first down is more efficient than running on first down, and the gap has only grown in recent years.
The Steelers have been one of the most run-heavy teams on first down over the past decade, and it has held them back.
Arthur Smith's offenses in Tennessee showed a willingness to push the ball on early downs, and that's what the Steelers need.
You can't just run on first down and expect to stay ahead of the chains in today's NFL.
The key is finding the right balance — being aggressive enough to keep defenses honest, but not so reckless that you put your quarterback in harm's way.
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