Global Carbon Budget 2025: Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Reach 11.6 GtC/yr with Atmospheric CO2 at 422.8 ppm
Summary
This article presents the Global Carbon Budget 2025, a comprehensive scientific assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere. It quantifies five major components: fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS), land-use change emissions (ELUC), atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM), ocean CO2 uptake (SOCEAN), and land CO2 uptake (SLAND). Key findings for 2024 include: fossil emissions at 10.3 GtC/yr (up 1.1% from 2023), total anthropogenic emissions of 11.6 GtC/yr, atmospheric CO2 reaching 422.8 ppm, and a large negative budget imbalance of -1.7 GtC/yr suggesting overestimation of sinks. Preliminary 2025 data projects further increases with CO2 reaching 425.6 ppm (53% above pre-industrial levels). The study highlights persistent uncertainties in land-use change emissions, discrepancies in northern extra-tropic land CO2 flux estimates, and differing ocean sink estimates across methods.
Source
bskyGlobal Carbon Budget 2025: Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Reach 11.6 GtC/yr with Atmospheric CO2 at 422.8 ppmdoi.orgKey quotes
· 5 pulledFossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) increased by 1.1% relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1
The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm
Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.0% (0.2% to 1.7%) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53% above the pre-industrial level
The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle
Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink
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