Ecological modeling reveals Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus circulates through broad networks of ticks and vertebrates

Understanding where the virus may circulate is crucial for anticipating outbreaks and guiding surveillance.

Previous studies have mostly relied on climate-based models, assuming that temperature and humidity determine where infected ticks can prevail. However, such models often overestimate risk, predicting virus presence in regions where no cases or vectors exist.

By incorporating host–vector interactions and vertebrate communities, our models accurately captured most known occurrences and revealed the ecological patterns underlying virus transmission.

Our results suggest that CCHFV persists within broad networks of tick and vertebrate species rather than a single vector.

This integrated approach offers a powerful framework to identify emerging risk areas and forms a good starting point to further improve our understanding of the ecological drivers of tick-borne viral diseases.