Aviation fuel demand growth slows as electric displacement and SAF constraints reshape projections
By
Michael Barnard
Summary
The article analyzes aviation fuel demand projections, arguing that the common assumption of continued growth in flying (fueled by cheap kerosene) is flawed. It presents a model where post-COVID recovery is followed by regional-electric displacement, constrained sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply, and demand pressure that bends the growth curve downward. The piece critiques both the "clean molecule in same demand curve" shortcut and the "decarbonization kills flying" shortcut, offering a more nuanced middle path for aviation's energy transition.
Source
bskyAviation fuel demand growth slows as electric displacement and SAF constraints reshape projectionscleantechnica.comKey quotes
· 3 pulledAviation is one of the harder transition sectors to model well because it invites two bad shortcuts.
One is to assume that flying keeps growing as it did in the cheap-kerosene era, with a cleaner molecule somehow dropped into the same demand curve.
The other is to assume that decarbonization or post-COVID behavioral change collapses flying.
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