Economic cycles compared: Tech remains the winner while other sectors invert between post-GFC and post-pandemic eras
By
Moses Sternstein
Summary
This article analyzes economic and market cycles, comparing the post-GFC period (2010-2020) with the post-pandemic period (2020-present). It finds that technology remains the consistent winner across both cycles, while other sectors have completely inverted — previous cycle winners have become losers and vice versa. The piece also explores nuances around AI (distinguishing between truly AI-enabled companies versus those merely claiming AI capabilities), the lean operational models of AI startups, and the paradoxical impact of technology on grocery productivity.
Source
Twitter / XEconomic cycles compared: Tech remains the winner while other sectors invert between post-GFC and post-pandemic erasa16z.newsKey quotes
· 4 pulledIf you compare this cycle to the previous one, in some ways it's exactly the same, and in other ways, it's a complete inversion.
Tech is plainly the cycle-winner for both the post-GFC period (2010-20) and the post-pandemic period (2020-present).
The laggards became the leaders, while the leaders became laggards.
Hardware is the real standout of the current cycle.
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