Vanguard economist predicts AI will benefit users more than providers, similar to electricity
By
Joseph Davis
Summary
Vanguard's Joseph Davis argues that AI technology will follow the pattern of electricity, where the users of the technology benefit more than the providers. The article presents Vanguard's economic forecast of 3% US GDP growth by 2027, which is notably higher than other professional forecasts, suggesting a fundamental shift in economic growth trajectory driven by AI capabilities. The analysis compares AI to other game-changing technologies throughout history.
Source
Key quotes
· 4 pulledJoseph Davis expects AI technology to resemble electricity, benefiting the users more than the providers
We anticipate 3% US GDP growth in 2027, an estimate that is noticeably higher than other professional forecasts, implying continued strong support for risk assets
Such growth will not represent an incremental improvement, but rather a fundamental shift in the economy's growth trajectory
We foresee an economic sea change
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