El Niño forecast for 2026: High probability but not a guaranteed drought for Australia
By
Dr Mandy Freund
Hot, fresh, and worth queueing round the block for.
Summary
The article discusses forecasts of a potential 'monster El Niño' developing in 2026, with early signs building in the Pacific Ocean and the World Meteorological Organization confirming scientific observations. However, it emphasizes that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean severe drought conditions for Australia, framing the 80% probability as a risk factor rather than a definite forecast.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledEarly signs in the Pacific have been building for months and forecasts now point to a high likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in 2026.
a big El Niño does not necessarily mean a big dry for Australia
The odds of a 'monster El Niño' developing this year are now as high as 80 per cent. But that is a risk factor not a definite forecast
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