Updated AI Futures Model Predicts Longer Timelines for Coding Automation and Superintelligence
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amstam
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Summary
The article presents an updated AI futures model that predicts timelines for key AI capability milestones, including Automated Coder (full coding automation) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). The new unified model shows longer timelines than previous forecasts, predicting about 3 years longer for full coding automation due to being less bullish about rapid progress. The post explains the model's methodology, presents timeline and takeoff forecasts, and compares them to previous AI 2027 models.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledOur new unified model predicts when AIs will reach key capability milestones: for example, Automated Coder / AC (full automation of coding) and superintelligence / ASI (much better than the best humans at virtually all cognitive tasks)
the AI Futures Model predicts about 3 years longer timelines to full coding automation than our previous model, mostly due to being less bullish
We've significantly improved our model(s) of AI timelines & takeoff speeds!
This post will briefly explain how the model works, present our timelines and takeoff forecasts, and compare it to our previous (AI 2027) models
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