Understanding Elite Overproduction: Peter Turchin's Theory of Social Instability

Summary

The article explains the concept of 'elite overproduction' developed by historian Peter Turchin, which describes a societal condition where there is an excess supply of potential elite members relative to the society's ability to absorb them into the power structure. Turchin hypothesizes that this leads to social instability as those excluded from power feel aggrieved by their relatively low socioeconomic status. The concept was first described in 2010 and represents a model for understanding social crises, though it cannot predict precisely how such crises will unfold.