Stochastic analysis finds projected fusion energy costs may be overly optimistic

Summary

This study conducts a stochastic analysis of projected future costs for nuclear fusion power plants across three technology lines: magnetic confinement (MCF), inertial confinement (ICF), and magneto-inertial confinement (MIF) fusion. For mature technologies, mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is estimated at 114.6, 110.3, and 143.9 USD per MWh respectively, implying learning rates above 30%. The authors find these projections optimistic compared to other literature or comparable technologies like fission, and urge policymakers to exercise caution when fusion developers cite potential economic competitiveness.

Source

bskyStochastic analysis finds projected fusion energy costs may be overly optimisticarxiv.org