The world in 2026

The world in 2026 The World Today iallan.drupal 9 December 2025 Chatham House experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead. Ukraine: Keeping the money flowing Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a peaceful settlement remains far from reach. As long as Vladimir Putin continues his extreme agenda to control not just Ukraine’s eastern regions but the entire country, Donald Trump’s negotiations alone are unlikely to stop him. The next year will be a battle of wills. Ukraine must adapt its economy to a protracted war and strengthen its industrial capacity to produce more weapons. It is equally vital that Ukraine wins the technological race in drone interception and gains deep-strike capabilities from European allies. Russia, meanwhile, continues to innovate. Its ballistic missiles, for example, are now better able to evade interceptors such as the US-made Patriot system. $100 billion in military aid and financial support is required by Ukraine to hold the line against Russia in 2026. Can Europe’s ‘coalition of the willing’ become the ‘coalition of the capable’? The answer is crucial as the United States retreats further from the continent. To hold the line in 2026, Ukraine will need around $100 billion in military aid and financial support as well as access to the best military equipment. Sanctions on Russia must also be tightened. But to win the war, Kyiv will need far more. In December, EU leaders agreed to loan Ukraine €90 billion over the next two years after failing to reach consensus over the initial proposal to fund a €140 billion Reparation Loan with frozen Russian sovereign assets. Nato’s PURL initiative (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), which encourages member states to buy American weapon systems for Ukraine, also needs more money in 2026. So far, only $2 billion from 13 members has been pledged. The Nato summit in Ankara in July could be a crucial moment to shore up these commitments and reach consensus over future security arrangements for Ukraine. Orysia Lutsevych is head of the Ukraine Forum — A Ukrainian volunteer controls a drone carrying a metal detector to search for mines near the eastern city of Derhachi. Photo: Sergey Bobok/ AFP via Getty Images.