The world in 2025

The world in 2025 The World Today iallan.drupal 3 December 2024 Here’s what Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead United States: Will Trump pitch a grand bargain with Beijing? Once Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, he will have choices to make and the authority to make them. Top of the list are America’s fraught, geopolitical relations with Russia and China. On the former, the question will be what relationship to play for with Russia and Vladimir Putin. The American position on Ukraine will flow from this. It is anticipated that Trump will push a land-for-peace deal with Ukraine, but see if he tries – like many presidents in their first year – to reset the relationship with Russia, either by pressing for strategic stability talks or, more consequentially, for a plan for Europe’s security that integrates Russia. While arms-control talks would be welcomed by many, expect resistance if Trump attempts a more ambitious resetting of the relationship. China may be the less urgent relationship, but for America, the global economy and international stability, it is the more important one. Will Trump follow through on his threat of extra tariffs on Chinese imports and lean in to the defence of Taiwan, or will he attempt a grand bargain that sees China leverage its partnership with Russia to secure a deal in Ukraine, in return for a reduced US commitment to Taiwan? Such a deal may leave relations between China, Russia and America in a better place but at a high price. And given current geopolitics, any calm would likely be fleeting. If Trump does attempt such a radical reordering, it would indicate few guardrails remain regarding foreign policy and presidential power – and many Americans, including in his own party, would not be happy. Leslie Vinjamuri, director, US and the Americas Programme