Steady Technological Progress Leads to Sudden Human Equivalence: Lessons from Horses and Chess
By
pbui
Plain bagel done well. Pleasantly substantive.
Summary
The article uses historical analogies to illustrate how technological progress can lead to sudden, dramatic shifts. It compares the steady improvement of steam engines over 200 years to the sudden disappearance of 90% of horses in the US between 1930-1950, when engines finally reached equivalence. The article then draws a parallel to computer chess progress tracked since 1985, suggesting that AI progress follows a similar pattern: steady improvement leading to sudden human equivalence.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledFor the first 120 years of that steady improvement, horses didn't notice at all.
Then, between 1930 and 1950, 90% of the horses in the US disappeared.
Progress in engines was steady. Equivalence to horses was sudden.
AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden.
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