Severe thunderstorm forecast for England and Wales: Heatwave gives way to hail, heavy rain and lightning
By
Nick Finnis
3h ago· 3 min readenInsight
Summary
A detailed weather forecast for severe convective storms (thunderstorms, heavy rain, hail) across England and Wales, driven by an upper-level ridge shifting east and a cut-off low drifting north from Portugal. This setup transports very warm, moist air northwestward while steep mid-level lapse rates from Spain/France create conditions for explosive thunderstorm development, with the potential for large hail, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.
Source
Key quotes
· 3 pulledSoutheasterly flow will strengthen in the low to mid-levels as a result, which will transport very warm/moist airmass (850 hPa theta-w values >20C) northwest over England and Wales
Very steep mid-level lapse rates (32-34C between 850-500 hPa) of an elevated mixed layer spreads north from N Spain / SW France
Track UK thunderstorms, heavy rain & hail with detailed maps and expert analysis.
Track UK thunderstorms, heavy rain & hail with detailed maps and expert analysis. Stay ahead of the storms.


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