Prediction Markets See 54% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in 2026 After Warsh's Inflation Remarks
Summary
Kevin Warsh stated inflation remains too high and reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target during a speech in Sintra, Portugal. In response, prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket assigned 53-54% odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026, with significant trading volumes exceeding $3 million on each platform.
Source
bskyPrediction Markets See 54% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in 2026 After Warsh's Inflation Remarksbriefly.coKey quotes
· 3 pulledKevin Warsh told central bankers in Sintra, Portugal on July 1, 2026 that inflation is too high and reiterated commitment to a 2% target.
Kalshi traders priced 77% odds for a hike before 2028, 66% before July 2027, and 53% before end of 2027, with over $3.1 million traded.
Polymarket's 2026 contract showed 54% odds with over $3.2 million traded since launch.
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