Rodney Brooks' Technology Predictions Scorecard: Retrospective Analysis and New Forecasts
By
calvinfo
An everything bagel for the brain. Substantive, layered, well-seasoned.
Summary
Rodney Brooks, former director of MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, provides a detailed retrospective analysis of his technology predictions from 8 years ago, examining what he got right and wrong. The article includes self-assessment of his previous forecasts about quantum computing, self-driving cars, and other technologies, along with new predictions for the future. Brooks reflects on the complexity of technological forecasting and shares insights about the challenges of predicting technological adoption timelines.
Key quotes
· 5 pulledNothing is ever as good as it first seems and nothing is ever as bad as it first seems.
You can follow me on social media: @rodneyabrooks.bsky.social and see my publications etc., at https://people.csail.mit.edu/brooks
What I Nearly Got Wrong
What Has Surprised Me, And That I Missed 8 Years Ago
My New Predictions
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