Reflection on Failed Economic Crash Prediction and Analysis of Economic Indicators
By
Wilsoniumite
Crackles when you bite it. Shows the baker did the work.
Summary
The author reflects on their failed prediction from last year that the US economy would experience a significant crash comparable to 2008. They analyze their original arguments, which were based on unemployment rate patterns and the inverted yield curve as a recession predictor. The article examines economic indicators and acknowledges the limitations of their previous forecasting approach, while maintaining a critical perspective on current economic conditions.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledLast year I predicted there would be a significant (2008+) economic crash that year. The year is now 2026 and I was wrong.
The unemployment rate just follows these smooth curves, covid was an exception, and it was due to jump again. Not very scientific I know.
Where classically an inverted yield curve has been a recession predictor.
This one is a little more involved, but essentially the US government borrows money and normally what makes sense is that the government needs to pay more
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