Wildfire Prediction Markets Draw Outrage from Survivors After Altadena Disaster
By
Kylie Mohr
Summary
This article examines the emergence of prediction markets that allow people to bet on catastrophic events like wildfires, focusing on the January 2025 Eaton and Palisades Fires in Altadena, California. It contrasts the devastating human toll — 16,000+ structures destroyed, 31 killed, and survivors like Sylvie Andrews losing everything — with the cold financial calculus of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can wager on fire perimeters, acreage, and containment dates. The piece explores the moral outrage from survivors who find the practice "reprehensible," concerns that such markets could incentivize arson, and the broader debate about whether financializing disaster prediction serves any public good or merely exploits tragedy.
Source
bskyWildfire Prediction Markets Draw Outrage from Survivors After Altadena Disasterwired.comKey quotes
· 3 pulledWe put a lot of blood, sweat, and tears into it. That's what we lost in the fire.
It feels morally reprehensible to profit off of people's misery and death.
These markets don't just predict disasters — they create financial incentives for them to happen.
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