Polymarket prediction contract on number of Fed rate hikes in 2026
By
Polymarket
Summary
This article describes a Polymarket prediction market contract that will resolve based on the total number of 25 basis point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026. It covers the resolution criteria, including that emergency hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings count, and that the market resolves early to "No" if the specified number becomes mathematically impossible. The context notes that sticky inflation and a hawkish June 2026 dot plot are driving closely matched odds on the platform.
Source
bskyPolymarket prediction contract on number of Fed rate hikes in 2026polymarket.comKey quotes
· 4 pulledThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to 'No' if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible
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