Oil markets show risk premium as traders bet on quick Iran conflict resolution despite uncertainty

Summary

Oil markets are pricing in a swift resolution to the Iran conflict, but analysts warn this optimism may be misplaced. With Brent crude prices in the low-to-mid $90s, there remains a "clear risk premium" attached to the conflict. Traders are struggling to interpret contradictory signals about the prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, and market volatility persists as real consumers, producers, and refiners need to hedge and trade. The article suggests investors betting on a quick end to the war could face regret if geopolitical tensions persist or escalate.