Marine Le Pen's political future hangs by a thread: justice makes a key decision today

This noon, the French justice system will decide the judicial and political future of Marine Le Pen. The leader of the far-right party National Rally (RN) appealed the sentence issued by the correctional court of Paris on March 31, 2025, which condemned her to 4 years in prison – two of them suspended – a fine of 100,000 euros, and 5 years of ineligibility. the correctional court of Paris on March 31, 2025, which condemned her to 4 years in prison – two of them suspended – a fine of 100,000 euros, and 5 years of ineligibility. . This Tuesday, the decision of the Paris Court of Appeal will determine whether she can run for the presidential elections for the fourth time next year or if she has to pass on the baton.The French MEP is being tried for the case of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front – which in 2018 would become the current RN – in the European Parliament. The Justice stated in the 2015 ruling that Le Pen was "at the heart of a management system" that since 2009 had been "emptying" the funds that the European Parliament allocated to pay parliamentary assistants, and that diverted the money for the benefit of her party.Different possible scenarios are now presented. Although acquittal is a possible conclusion, it is not very likely, because so far the court of appeal has pointed in the same direction as the correctional court. Furthermore, during this second trial, evidence has been presented that leaves Le Pen in a very bad position, such as messages from an MEP of the party who expressed doubts about what "Marine is asking them" because it "amounts to creating a fictitious job". Therefore, that she will be disqualified seems the most likely scenario, but the impact of the sentence will depend on how long this disqualification lasts.Debate about dates If the judges rule a period of ineligibility – which disqualifies her only from standing for election – longer than two years, as is currently the case, Le Pen has already announced that she will not appeal a second time and, therefore, would give up standing for election. However, the situation becomes complicated if the disqualification is for two years or less: it all depends on when the Constitutional Court has to rule on Le Pen's ineligibility.It is the first time that the Fifth French Republic has faced a case of ineligibility for a presidential election candidate and, although there is jurisprudence on similar cases in other elections, the timeline is not at all clear. Most jurists point to April 18, 2027, the day of the first round of the presidential elections. Since Le Pen's conviction became effective on March 31, 2025, if the sentence were two years, she would have completed it on March 31 of next year and, therefore, could run.However, French electoral law dictates that the list of candidates for the presidential election must be published "no later than the fourth Friday before the first round", in this case March 26, 2027. If this second date were confirmed, it is unlikely that Marine Le Pen could run as a candidate, because the court of appeal is not expected to considerably reduce her sentence.There is still one last possible scenario: that, however much she may run, she will have to spend the campaign with an electronic bracelet and under house arrest. The former president of the RN has already rejected the possibility of campaigning under these conditions. If the prison sentence is less than six months, Le Pen could get rid of the bracelet from this October, and she could reconsider.A new presidential candidate? For years, faced with the possibility of elections without Marine Le Pen, the National Rally has been promoting its potential successor, Jordan Bardella . The young thirty-year-old MEP, who succeeded his political mentor as party president four years ago, regularly appears accompanied by Le Pen and, increasingly, alone.The image of a tutored youth, however, weighs on Bardella and there is no doubt that his predecessor will continue to have a considerable influence on French politics both during the campaign and after a hypothetical victory of the RN in the presidential elections, even if she is condemned. In fact, several voices within the party have pointed to a close tutelage of Bardella by Le Pen. If the far-right party wins the elections, Bardella could appoint his former boss as prime minister.