The drone warfare race in Ukraine: 65x increase in Shahed attacks and the failure of Western procurement
By
⚔️Marc C Lange👨💻
Summary
Analysis of the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine over three years. The author notes that Shahed/Geran drone attacks have increased from 10 per night to over 8,150 per month, with drones evolving in altitude, warhead size, and propulsion. While Ukraine's interception rate has improved to 92%, the sheer volume means hundreds still hit targets. The article criticizes Western procurement agencies for relying on expensive, scarce components like NVidia boards, arguing that the reality of drone warfare demands cheap, mass-producible systems from commercial supply chains. The author warns that the measure-countermeasure race never ends and that "winning" is a misconception.
Source
bskyThe drone warfare race in Ukraine: 65x increase in Shahed attacks and the failure of Western procurementsubstack.comKey quotes
· 5 pulledThe big misunderstanding at the bottom of these statements is that there's a chance of 'winning' anything here. The measure-countermeasure-countermeasure race never stops.
The current lifecycle for these drones is 1.5 months. This, and the production numbers Ukraine and Russia (Iran, China, North Korea) are pushing, are impossible (not hard, impossible) to achieve when relying on exquisite technology like NVidia boards.
I'm not afraid to call out that the companies that build their systems based on scarce, expensive, heavily regulated subsystems like those of NVidia are ignoring a fundamental, uncomfortable, truth of unmanned systems warfare.
Their role in this new world is to ignite a race to the bottom in terms of cost, and push innovation where strategically useful unmanned systems innovation actually lives: to the bottom of the parts bin of the commercial electronics supply chain.
so far, still, after five years, I hardly know a single US or European procurement official who is price- and iteration-conscious.
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