Study finds large cities lose growth advantage as nations become more urbanized
By
Frank Neffke
Summary
This research article examines the relationship between city size and growth rate as countries urbanize. It challenges the prevailing theory that large cities grow faster than smaller ones, presenting evidence that the growth advantage of large cities diminishes as a country's urbanization level increases. The study analyzes global population data from 1975 to 2025, showing that while the share of people living in cities over one million has doubled from 11% to 24%, this concentration trend may not continue indefinitely. The findings suggest that as nations become more urbanized, medium-sized and smaller cities can experience faster growth, leading to a more balanced urban system.
Source
bskyStudy finds large cities lose growth advantage as nations become more urbanizedpnas.orgKey quotes
· 3 pulledThe share of the world population living in cities with more than one million people rose from 11% in 1975 to 24% in 2025.
Large cities are typically more innovative and productive, have more educated workforces, sit more centrally in trade and knowledge networks.
Whether this concentration will continue depends on the relationship between a city's size and its growth rate—a topic on which the literature is divided.
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