Expert forecasts on when AI will automate all cognitive labor: A timeline analysis
By
Dan Schwarz
Crackling crust, pillowy middle. The kind of bagel that earns a second cup of coffee.
Summary
This article analyzes and visualizes predictions from top AI researchers and forecasting organizations about when artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be achieved and when AI will fully automate all cognitive labor. It presents median forecasts from figures like Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ajeya Cotra, and platforms like Metaculus, showing a range of predictions from the mid-2020s to the 2040s. The piece serves as a follow-up to earlier AI timeline analyses, tracking how expert opinions have shifted over time regarding the automation of human cognitive work.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledMany orgs track AGI timelines, like AI Futures, Metaculus, and Epochs.
Recently, though, I noticed that many great researchers have now...
Predictions for when most cognitive labor will be fully automated.
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