How Donald Trump defied political forecasting to win the Republican nomination
By
Nate Silver
Summary
The article reflects on the author's mistake of dismissing Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, drawing lessons from the 2012 Republican primaries where populist insurgents surged but ultimately lost to establishment candidates like Mitt Romney. The piece examines how Trump broke that pattern and conquered the Republican Party, challenging conventional political forecasting wisdom.
Source
Twitter / XHow Donald Trump defied political forecasting to win the Republican nominationnatesilver.netKey quotes
· 3 pulledIn 2015, I made the biggest mistake of my career by being too dismissive of Donald Trump's chance of winning the Republican nomination.
The 'lesson' of 2012 had been that populist or insurgent candidates — Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, you name it — could surge for a time in the polls, but wouldn't survive sustained scrutiny.
The Republican establishment always got its way in the end in the form of candidates like Mitt Romney.
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