Study: Google AI Overviews grew search traffic 5% but concentrated gains among major publishers

Summary

A study by XSquareSEO analyzing 44 major U.S. publishers found that aggregate organic search traffic actually grew 5% since Google's AI Overviews were introduced, contrary to claims that AI search is collapsing the open web. However, the traffic gains were distributed unevenly—flowing almost entirely to large institutional brands while smaller publishers saw declines. The study compares two 24-month windows (pre-AI and post-AI) using Semrush visibility estimates, revealing a structural shift in search traffic distribution rather than an overall collapse.