Economic and Structural Drivers of Low Fertility in High-Income Countries
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Summary
This NBER working paper by Melissa Schettini Kearney and Phillip B. Levine examines the economic and structural factors behind persistently low fertility rates in high-income countries. The research analyzes how rising costs of childrearing, increased female labor force participation, delayed marriage and childbearing, housing affordability challenges, and insufficient family-support policies contribute to declining birth rates. The paper explores both economic incentives and cultural shifts that shape fertility decisions in developed economies.
Key quotes
· 5 pulledThe economic cost of raising children in high-income countries has risen substantially, making childbearing increasingly unaffordable for many families.
Delayed childbearing and declining fertility rates reflect a fundamental shift in the opportunity cost of motherhood as women's educational attainment and labor force participation have increased.
Housing costs in many high-income countries have outpaced wage growth, creating a significant barrier to family formation.
The relationship between economic development and fertility has reversed; higher GDP per capita is now associated with lower birth rates across developed nations.
Policy interventions such as subsidized childcare and paid parental leave have shown mixed results in boosting fertility rates to replacement levels.
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
