New National Academies Report Sharpens Science of Linking Extreme Weather to Climate Change

A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of extreme event attribution (EEA), the scientific approach to determining whether and how much human-caused climate change influences specific weather disasters. The report updates a 2016 National Academies report and draws on decades of data to evaluate the maturity of a field that has rapidly grown in both capability and public relevance.

"Decades of data and research indicate that human-caused climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several types of extreme events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall events."

National Academies PressAttribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts

The report emphasizes that EEA studies can inform public understanding, planning, risk management, and even legal and policy decisions, according to the National Academies Press. By isolating the climate change signal in individual events, scientists are increasingly able to say not just that a storm or heat wave was made more likely, but by how much.

House Science Committee Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) issued a statement following the report's release, noting that it assesses the scientific field that examines whether and to what extent human-caused climate change influences specific extreme weather events such as heat waves or hurricanes, according to the office of Representative Lofgren. Her statement welcomed the report as an important resource for policymakers confronting the growing toll of weather disasters.

The findings arrive as attribution studies have become more common in public discourse, often cited in lawsuits and climate adaptation debates. The National Academies Press report serves both as a scientific benchmark and a reminder that the link between a warming planet and extreme weather is no longer a question of whether, but of how much.