Analysis: Probability of Nvidia Stock Falling Below $100 in 2026
By
todsacerdoti
The bagel they save for the regulars. Don't skim, savour.
Summary
The article analyzes the probability of Nvidia's stock price falling below $100 in 2026, given its current price around $184. The author estimates a 10% probability of this occurring, which is higher than expected, and provides analysis on stock market predictions, volatility, and the challenges of forecasting technology stocks. The piece examines factors that could lead to such a significant decline in Nvidia's valuation.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledOne of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia's stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026.
If you just want the answer, my best prediction is that the probability is around 10%. I didn't expect to get such a high answer, but read on to see how we can find out.
At the time of writing, it trades at $184 and a bit, so going down to $100 would be a near halving of the stock value of the highest valued company in the world.
Article URL: https://entropicthoughts.com/nvidia-stock-crash-prediction
Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46693205
Points: 32
# Comments: 6
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