64 GW Midday Drop Highlights India's Growing Storage Need

An Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Working Paper has highlighted that India's power sector challenge is rapidly shifting from adding generation capacity to ensuring sufficient grid flexibility, as rising solar penetration increasingly strains the electricity system. In its report, The Duck and the Camel: Tracing the Net Load on the Indian Power Grid , the EAC-PM identifies three key market signals indicating that flexibility, rather than capacity, has become the defining challenge for India's power grid. According to the report, the intraday price spread between solar and non-solar hours has widened significantly, with the peak-to-trough price ratio approaching nine, constrained only by the price ceiling in the electricity market. The study also finds that power shortages occur predominantly during non-solar hours, while increasing volumes of solar energy are being curtailed because the grid is unable to absorb the electricity when it is generated. Winter Grid Faces a 'Double Ramp' The report notes that while the familiar " duck curve " dominates summer operations, winter presents an even greater flexibility challenge. The evening net-load ramp has more than doubled over three years, increasing from around 27 GW in 2023 to 50 GW in 2025 and 65 GW in 2026. Unlike summer, winter also introduces a steep pre-dawn morning ramp as demand rises before sunrise. The paper argues that these trends point to rising grid stress caused by rapid solar capacity additions without corresponding growth in energy storage and other measures that can smooth net load variations. At the same time, the midday decline in net load has expanded sharply, growing from approximately 25 GW in 2023 to 50 GW in 2025 and 64 GW in 2026, reflecting the increasing contribution of solar generation during daylight hours. The report also highlights a structural shift in winter demand patterns. In January 2023, the day's lowest average net load occurred during the night at around 136 GW, while the midday net load remained significantly higher at 152 GW. By January 2026, however, the midday trough had deepened to around 143 GW, falling below the overnight load and illustrating how solar generation is fundamentally reshaping India's daily demand profile. Non-Solar Hour Shortages Continue to Dominate Analysing data from 1 April to 31 May 2026, the report finds a stark difference between shortages during solar and non-solar hours. The grid failed to meet peak demand during solar hours on only 6 of 61 days, or around 10% of the period analysed. The largest daytime shortage was 516 MW on 26 April 2026, representing only about 0.2% of the system load at that time. In contrast, shortages during non-solar hours were significantly more frequent and severe, underscoring the growing challenge of meeting evening demand after solar generation declines. Report Backs Contracts for Difference The working paper also supports expanding market-based mechanisms to improve grid flexibility, including the introduction of Contracts for Difference ( CfDs ). It notes that most of India's electricity continues to be supplied through long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with fixed schedules, leaving only a small portion of electricity traded through competitive markets. According to the report, introducing CfDs and expanding market products would provide renewable energy developers with greater revenue certainty while creating stronger incentives for investments in battery energy storage, demand response and other flexible resources. The report further notes that the proposed amendments to the Electricity Act seek to align renewable energy procurement obligations with the Energy Conservation Act, 2001, creating a uniform national framework for non-fossil power consumption. It argues that while stronger clean energy obligations will accelerate renewable deployment, they must be accompanied by adequate storage capacity and other flexibility measures to ensure reliable grid operations. Overall, the paper concludes that India's electricity system has entered a new phase where the primary challenge is no longer generating sufficient power, but ensuring that renewable electricity generated during the day can be stored and supplied when demand peaks after sunset.