2026 Open Social Web Predictions: Platform Growth, Federated Technology, and Decentralization Trends
By
todsacerdoti
If you only eat one bagel today, this is the bagel.
Summary
Tim Chambers makes predictions for the open social web in 2026, focusing on growth forecasts for platforms like Bluesky and Mastodon, advancements in federated technologies, and shifts in how organizations and governments engage with decentralized networks. The predictions are categorized as 'mild' (safe bets), 'medium' (likely), and 'spicy' (bold) with specific metrics for verification.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledI do this not to prove how great my prognostication muscles are, but to shine a spotlight on trends I think are vital, spur discussions, and give some attention to projects that have earned it.
As always, I try to make these as quantifiable, verifiable and crisp as I can.
Bluesky will cross 60 million registered users in 2026. Growth will slow
The predictions are categorized as 'mild' (safe bets), 'medium' (likely), and 'spicy' (bold) with specific metrics for verification.
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