Cassidy applies Kindleberger's five stages of mania to the current AI boom, using Aschenbrenner's hedge fund struggles as a case study. It's a framework piece that asks whether the AI trade is entering the 'distress' phase.
financeTuesday, August 11, 2026
Aschenbrenner's Humbling Stokes AI Bubble Fears
The New Yorker's John Cassidy uses Leopold Aschenbrenner's troubles to dust off Kindleberger's mania framework, asking whether the AI boom is the latest speculative bubble. It's a timely question as oil jitters and labor market wobbles test the broader bull case.
AI Bubble Signals
A prominent AI bull's stumble is prompting a closer look at the froth in tech valuations.
OpenAI's $7 billion buyback at a flat $852 billion valuation is notable for what it doesn't do: no mark-up. That's a sign of discipline, or perhaps a sign that the private market is cooling on AI names.
Macro Crosscurrents
Oil spikes and a cooling labor market are muddying the picture for risk assets everywhere.

Oil above $82 and the SPR at a 1983 low are the kind of supply shocks that feed inflation and complicate central bank policy. The tension between oil jitters and AI optimism is the market's central conflict right now.
The July jobs report shows a 23,000 decline and big downward revisions, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% because people left the workforce. That's a weaker labor market than the headline suggests, and it could force the Fed's hand.
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