Analysis: The Strategic Costs of a Second US Air Campaign Against Iran
By
Harry J. Kazianis
Hot, fresh, and worth queueing round the block for.
Summary
The article analyzes the strategic costs and risks of a potential second American air war against Iran. It describes a fragile stalemate between Washington and Tehran, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Iran refusing to reopen it. The piece warns that the first conflict quietly drained weapons systems that would take years to replace, and a second campaign would completely empty US military stockpiles. It examines the tempting but treacherous option of restarting an air campaign to force Iran to reopen the strait and abandon its nuclear program, arguing that such a choice appears clean in briefings but carries devastating long-term consequences for US military readiness.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledThe fragile truce between Washington and Tehran has hardened into a stalemate that satisfies no one.
The Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which close to a fifth of the world's oil moves, remains effectively shut, and Iran shows no sign of handing it back.
That leaves the United States staring at a tempting and treacherous option: restart the air campaign to force Iran to reopen the strait and abandon its nuclear program for good.
It is the kind of choice that looks clean on a briefing slide.
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