Measuring the AI Economy: US AI Output Estimates Show 2,000% Annual Quality-Adjusted Growth
By
Anton Korinek, Patrick McKelvey
Summary
This paper (Working Papers 26-9) constructs a macroeconomic estimate of total AI production for the United States by combining inference and R&D/training activities. The authors apply quality adjustments based on API price evolution at fixed performance levels and algorithmic progress. Key findings include: nominal AI compute spending grew over 140% per year in 2024 and 2025, raw compute capacity grew over 200% per year, and quality-adjusted AI output grew over 2,000% per year.
Source
bskyMeasuring the AI Economy: US AI Output Estimates Show 2,000% Annual Quality-Adjusted Growthd.repec.orgKey quotes
· 2 pulledThe authors construct a macroeconomic estimate of total AI production for the United States, combining inference and R&D/training activities and applying quality adjustments based on the evolution of API prices at fixed performance levels and the pace of algorithmic progress.
They estimate that nominal AI compute spending grew over 140 percent per year each in 2024 and 2025, raw compute capacity grew over 200 percent per year, and quality-adjusted AI output grew over 2,000 percent per year.
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