NBER Study Links iPhone Adoption to Decline in U.S. Fertility Rates Since 2007
By
Caitlin K. Myers & Ezekiel Hooper
A bagel-shaped object. The form is there, the soul isn't.
Summary
This NBER research paper investigates the sharp 22% decline in the U.S. general fertility rate since 2007, which cannot be adequately explained by traditional factors like economic conditions, contraceptive use, or housing costs. The authors propose that the diffusion of smartphones—specifically the iPhone—may be a contributing factor. They leverage a natural experiment: from June 2007 to February 2011, the iPhone was exclusively sold on AT&T's network, allowing researchers to identify its effect by analyzing variation in AT&T's mobile broadband coverage. The study uses entropy-balanced Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences methodologies to establish causal evidence linking smartphone adoption to declining birth rates.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledThe U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors.
We assess the potential role of a different shock: the diffusion of the smartphone.
The U.S. rollout of the iPhone, the first modern smartphone, provides a natural experiment: from June 2007 through February 2011, the device was sold only on AT&T, allowing us to identify its effect from variation in AT&T's mobile broadband coverage.
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