Study identifies three-phase mechanism driving Antarctic sea ice decline since 2015
By
Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
Hot, fresh, and worth queueing round the block for.
Summary
This scientific study analyzes the drivers of Antarctic sea ice decline since 2015, using an observationally constrained sea ice–ocean model spanning 2013–2023. The research identifies three distinct phases of sea ice retreat: (1) intensifying westerlies preconditioning the Southern Ocean via increased upwelling of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW), (2) strong winds in 2015–2016 enhancing CDW mixing into the upper ocean to initiate sea ice loss (particularly in East Antarctica), and (3) sustained processes continuing the decline. The study provides a mechanistic understanding of the compound drivers behind the unprecedented sea ice loss observed through 2023.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledAntarctic sea ice extent began declining in 2015, reaching its minimum in the post-1970s observational era in 2023.
To diagnose the drivers of this decline, we analyze an observationally constrained sea ice–ocean model spanning 2013–2023 and identify three distinct phases of sea ice retreat.
First, intensifying westerlies preconditioned the Southern Ocean via increased upwelling of warm, saline circumpolar deep water (CDW).
Second, strong winds in 2015–2016 enhanced the mixing of CDW into the upper ocean, thereby initiating sea ice loss, particularly in East Antarctica.
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