The doomsday argument: How probability math claims to predict humanity's end
By
Jack Murtagh
If you only eat one bagel today, this is the bagel.
Summary
This article explores the 'doomsday argument,' a probabilistic reasoning that uses the total number of humans who have ever lived to estimate when humanity might go extinct. It explains the core logic—using the Copernican principle and Bayesian probability to suggest we may be living in the final portion of human history—and presents both the mathematical reasoning and the fierce debates among philosophers, mathematicians, and scientists about its validity. The piece covers key proponents like J. Richard Gott and Brandon Carter, critiques from skeptics, and the broader implications of using pure probability to predict existential risks.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledThe doomsday argument relies solely on the laws of probability and a single data point: the total number of humans who have lived to date.
If you're just a random observer in the timeline of humanity, you're more likely to be living during a time when there are many humans—which is near the end, not the beginning.
Critics argue that the argument makes unwarranted assumptions about the randomness of our position in history and fails to account for the possibility of an expanding future population.
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