The Reality of Software Project Estimation: Why Accurate Predictions Are Impossible
By
mattjhall
Master baker tier. Every paragraph earns its place on the tray.
Summary
The article challenges the conventional wisdom in software engineering that accurate project estimation is possible. The author, a staff software engineer, argues that software estimation is fundamentally impossible due to the inherent unpredictability of creative work, unknown unknowns, and the complex nature of software development. Instead of trying to provide precise estimates, the author advocates for a more honest approach: acknowledging uncertainty, using ranges rather than single-point estimates, focusing on risk identification, and communicating clearly with stakeholders about the realities of software development. The piece offers practical advice for engineers on how to navigate estimation conversations while maintaining professional integrity.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledEstimating how long software projects will take is very hard, but not impossible. A skilled engineering team can, with time and effort, learn how long it will take for them to deliver work, which will in turn allow their organization to make good business plans. This is, of course, false.
As every experienced software engineer knows, it is not possible to accurately estimate software projects. The tension between this polite fiction and its well-understood falseness causes a lot of strange ac
Software estimation is not a technical problem to be solved, but a social problem to be managed.
The best we can do is to be honest about our uncertainty, to communicate clearly, and to focus on the things we can control rather than pretending we can predict the unpredictable.
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