The oil inflection point: Who pays when petrol demand no longer supports refinery economics
By
TheCitiesPod
The kind of bagel you'd toss to the pigeons.
Summary
A commentary piece discussing the impending "oil inflection point" where declining petrol demand will impact refinery economics. The author argues that clean hydrogen for aviation will never be viable at scale due to prohibitive costs, and that hydrogen's role will be limited to bio-SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) production pathways. The piece focuses on who bears the cost when petrol can no longer subsidize refinery operations.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledClean H2 never arrives in anything like a meaningful volume for aviation - it's an order of magnitude too expensive, with no pathway to get down to the sort of prices flyers will be prepared to pay.
There will be H2 used in production of aviation fuel, hopefully clean, but only within various bio-SAF pathways.
Will go down as one of those pieces that changes the way I look at the markets.
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