Understanding the CMIP Frameworks: Why Climate Risk Analysis Requires Multiple Scenarios, Not a Single "Most Likely" Path
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Summary
This article warns against the oversimplified approach of using a single "most likely" emissions scenario for climate risk analysis. It explains that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5, CMIP6, and emerging CMIP7) are powerful scientific resources, but are often misused by practitioners who fail to understand their intended purpose. The article argues that proper climate risk assessment requires engaging with the full range of scenarios and uncertainties rather than cherry-picking one pathway.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledfind the 'most likely' emissions scenario, run your analysis against it, and move on. It feels rigorous. It feels defensible. And it is, unfortunately, a methodological trap.
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects - CMIP5, CMIP6, and now the emerging CMIP7 - have given risk practitioners an extraordinary scientific resource.
But understanding what these frameworks were actually built to do is essential to using them correctly.
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