Climate scientists drop worst-case scenario as global action makes it increasingly unlikely
By
Andrew King
Fresh out the oven, still warm. Top of the tray.
Summary
Climate scientists have removed the worst-case emissions scenario (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) from new climate projections because global climate action has made such a future unlikely. The scenario, which assumed no emissions cuts and massive fossil fuel expansion, is no longer considered plausible. This change has been misinterpreted by climate skeptics like Donald Trump as a failure of climate science, but it actually reflects real-world progress in renewable energy adoption and policy commitments. The new scenarios better reflect current trajectories, where emissions are still too high but no longer tracking the absolute worst-case path.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledThe removal of the worst-case scenario is not a sign that climate change isn't happening or that scientists were wrong. It's a sign that our actions are making a difference.
Trump's claim that this is 'failed science' fundamentally misunderstands how climate modeling works. Scenarios are updated as the world changes.
We're not on a good path yet, but we've moved away from the truly catastrophic trajectory that seemed possible a decade ago.
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