Study Uses US Air Force Data to Measure How Job Mismatch Affects Early Career Success
By
jandrewrogers
Pale and squishy. Not ruined, just not done.
Summary
This article examines how being over- or underqualified at the start of a career affects skill acquisition, retention, and promotion. The research overcomes self-selection bias by studying US Air Force enlistees, who are allocated to over 130 different jobs based partly on test scores. The study uses simulated job assignments based on factors outside individual control—available training slots and program quality—to estimate the causal effects of job mismatch on early career outcomes.
Key quotes
· 4 pulledHow does being over- or underqualified at the beginning of a worker's career affect skill acquisition, retention, and promotion?
Despite the importance of mismatch for the labor market, self-selection into jobs has made estimating these effects difficult.
We overcome endogeneity concerns in the context of the US Air Force, which allocates new enlistees to over 130 different jobs based, in part, on test scores.
Using these test scores, we create simulated job assignments based on factors outside of an individual's control: the available slots in upcoming training programs and the quality
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